Wringing the Last Drops of Innocence from the World

   "Never such innocence,

Never before or since,

As changed itself to past

Without a word – the men

Leaving the gardens tidy,

The thousands of marriages,

Lasting a little while longer:

Never such innocence again."

MCMXIV by Philip Larkin

Casual historians today tell the story of the First World War as if Bang! The Archduke gets shot, and Bam! everyone started shooting each other.  In reality, the whole thing was far more complicated. For a while after Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, the Crisis of 1914 was seen as just a small dispute between Austria and Serbia.  A local problem best left to the two participants to sort out between them. Then, when it looked like there really would be a huge war, everyone stood around for a while deciding whether or not they really should start the whole thing or just talk each other out of it.
   Local crises like the murder of the Archduke had happened before, for example European quarrels over who owned what in Africa, or the Balkan Wars of 1912-13.  These had mostly been settled by a few shots fired and some diplomacy, but they had touched only matters of national interest.  The death of Franz Ferdinand was a matter of national pride.
    Austria was the weakest of the European powers, and was therefore also the most sensitive. A very multicultural, multi-religious, multi-ethnic territory, Austria-Hungary lived in fear of ethnic subversion. When the heir to the throne was killed by a member of the most subversive minority, it was too much for Austrian sensibilities. An investigation revealed that the terrorists were Austrian subjects, but they had been armed in Serbia and the smuggled across the Austria/Serbia border by Serbian nationalists. This national organization was the Narodna Odbranda (National Defence) which had been set up in 1908 to work against the incorporation of Serbia into the Austrian Empire. Narodna shared members with another nationalist organization,"Union or Death" better known as The Black Hand. They wanted to unite Serbia, it was actually from The Black Hand where there terrorists had come.  This secret society was under the control of an individual code named "Apis" who was the commander of the Serbian Army's General staff.  No one is still quite sure how much the Serbian government knew about the plot.  However much they knew, it was enough to confirm to Austria that Serbia was nothing but trouble and was best punished for their crime.
    The Serbs were Orthodox Christians, which made them a religious as well as ethnic minority. Their religion, however, made them the darling of Russia.  Austria knew this, and to were hesitant to take action against Serbia. Russia aside, Serbia was not well-liked among most of Europe.  In 1903, the Serbs had killed their king and queen and then thrown their bodies out a window and hacked them to bits with swords.  This shocked the rest of Europe, even sympathetic Russians and Bulgarians, and no one was really keen on defending people that did this to their sovereigns.
   The assassins confessed to Serbian complicity in the crime on July 2. Austria had long wanted to get Serbia out of their hair and this was a perfect excuse. Austria made its position clear a mere six days after the assassination, but would not dare to act if they could not count on backing from Germany. This was a mistake on Austria's part.  Everyone else, even Russia, wasn't all that interested in Serbia. If Austria had struck immediately, without waiting to see if Germany would help them, the rest of Europe might have let Austria do what it wished with Serbia and passed it off as a local problem.
    Over lunch on July 5, Kaiser Wilhelm II told the Austrian Minister, Count Berchtold, Austria would have Germany's support. The German Foreign Office was informed the next day that Britain would not get involved in a Balkan crisis, nor would Russia and France. Satisfied, the Kaiser departed on the imperial yacht, the Hohenzollern, for his annual cruise to the Norwegian fjords. Before he left, the Kaiser insisted on one thing, Austria needed to come to a firm decision on waht it wanted to do. Austrians were known for what Germany referred to as Schlamperei, a mix of prevarication and procrastination which often irritated  Germans to no end.  Kaiser Wilhelm feared the same was about to happen this time. Oddly enough, in the first weeks of July the roles were reversed; Austria wanted action, Germany went on holiday.
    Tuesday, July 7 was ten days after the assassination when the Imperial Counsel of Ministers finally met. Count Berchtold wanted to go to war, The Hungarian Prime Minister, Tisza, insisted that a list of demands be sent to Serbia first. If they rejected the terms, then they would be sent an ultimatum that led to war. They argued over this for a while, and then turned it over to the Emperor. Franz Josef agreed that Serbia should be given terms first, to Berchtold's dismay.  By July 14th, Berchtold and Tisza drafted the terms and set the date for the terms to be approved. The date chosen was July 19, twenty days after the assassination. Even worse, the note would not be delivered to Serbia for at least another week.  Why? Because the President of France was going on a state visit to Russia and Austria/Germany did not want their note going out when two potential allies to Serbia would be in close contact with one another. With France and Russia together when the terms were sent to Serbia, it would lessen the chance conflict with Serbia remaining a local problem, and make it more likely that France and Russia would come to Serbia's defence.
       The French president was scheduled to leave Russia on Thursday, July 23rd. Austria's terms would be sent to Serbia on the same day and would expire at 6 o'clock in the evening (local time) of the 25th. In short, the terms imposed the arrest, interrogation, and punishment of Serbian officials implicated in the assassination.  They also insisted Austro-Hungarian officials should take part in the process on Serbian soil.  Translation: Austria-Hungary did not trust Serbia to handle the crime itself.
   Twenty-five days since the assassination had passed, and the Serbian Prime Minister, Nicholas Pasic, was warned the note from Austria with terms was on its way. Despite this, he left  Belgrade for the country. During the night he had a change of heart and returned to the city, and met with his ministers the next morning. France, Britain, Germany and Russia had by this time all received copies of the note, although France was currently in the hands of a deputy since the president and foreign minister were at sea. Meanwhile in Belgrade, the British minister was ill, the Russian minister had just died and was yet to be replaced, the French minister had a nervous breakdown and his replacement had just arrived. Messages from London and Paris urged Serbia to accept as many of the terms as they could, but the Serbians were still deciding. With Serbia humiliated and everyone else mostly just standing around not knowing what to do, the murder of the Archduke was still a matter between Austria and Serbia and not really any other country. The British Foreign Minister, Sir Edward Grey, left London for a weekend of fishing.  At this point I am beginning to wonder how this war got started at all.  We're deciding on whether or not we should end civilization as we know it and everyone goes on holiday!  Although, there is something to be said for prolonging the inevitable, and wringing those last drops of innocence from the world.
   Serbia was still considering the terms from Austria when word reached them the mood in the Tsar's country palace was very pro-Serbian.  This emboldened Serbia to reject the most important of Austria's terms, that Austria would take part in the investigation of the assassination. Tsar Nicholas, meanwhile, announced a  "Period Preparatory to War", where Russia would think about thinking about mobilization.  At this, Serbia began mobilizing its small army, and Russia recalled the youngest reservists from its western districts.  Aside from this, for two days not much else happened. Germany warned Russia that if it fully mobilized, it would cause Germany to mobilize its army which would mean war. Britain and France began working to restrain Russia, which seemed to work, Russia moderated its position and so did Germany.  For an instant it looked like this crisis could be negotiated away like so many before.

Kalimegdan or Belgrade Fort

    If only, if only! Few realized what a flash point the mobilization of Russia was until after the fact. While Britain and France were trying to talk Russia down, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia Tuesday July 28, officially beginning the War to End All Wars and start a hundred others. Austria began bombing Belgrade the next day. Horrible as that sounds, the attack was really just a pinprick. The fort that was shelled, Kalimegdan, an old Turkish fort at the meeting of the Danube and Sava Rivers, still stands to this day. Also on the 29th, Russia began partial mobilization. That afternoon, Kaiser Wilhelm telegraphed his cousin, Tsar Nicholas, and asked him to smooth over difficulties between Austria and Serbia,  Nicholas replied "It would be right to give over the Austro-Servian problem to the Hague conference." The international court that Nicholas himself had invented to handle such crises which no one seemed to want to be a member of. Wilhelm telegraphed back asking Russia to remain a spectator,  Nicholas had a change of heart and recalled the mobilization orders that evening. The Tsar, on holiday along with everyone else it seems, was at his summer residence. He was being badgered by his cabinet about what might happen if they didn't mobilize,  Finally giving in, Tsar Nicholas gave the order for the first day of mobilization to be July 31, thirty-four days since the Archduke had been murdered.
   The next day saw Germany's mobilization, while France fell into despair when Britain still refused to get involved. Britain was disconnected from the rest of Europe, both geographically and in ties of diplomacy, and she still believed that the primary offending parties could be talked out of their current positions.  August 2 saw Germany deliver an ultimatum to Belgium, which would expire in 24 hours. This was the causus belli for Britain, they told Germany to stand down or else. The Germans refused, so at midnight on August 4, Britain and France collectively declared war on Germany. Austria managed to delay its declaration of war on Russia until the next day, August 5 and was still not at war with Britain and France a week later.  The two Allies made up dithering Austria's mind for it by declaring war on Austria August 12th. Italy, meanwhile, would remain neutral for the time being and Serbia, the cause of all this woe? War would not come to their country for another 14 months.
    Modern forms of communication overload those who use them.  Valuable information is lost as we try to separate what is vital from what is not, and drown in the onslaught. In 1914, everyone was plague by the opposite problem "underload." Information about who was doing what trickled in slowly, if at all, and was usually incomplete. No one had any idea what everyone else was up to, nor could they get advice from anyone else on how to respond.  (It probably would have helped some if most of the main decision-makers hadn't all gone on holiday at once.) In the dreadful in-between, the gaps of information that had to be filled in, everyone deliberated, thought, acted and then rescinded, and finally just made the choice and prayed it was the right one.